Modelling guidance

Trading conditions update

The trading conditions update is produced in order to provide equal disclosure to all investors and potential investors of current trading conditions.

Content includes the following:

• Current and historic market prices
• Current and historic marker margins
• Rules of thumb for Brent, Henry Hub and RIM

*combined indicator for oil production & operations and gas & low carbon energy

Find out more about our trading conditions update

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1Q 2026 guidance

Below is bp's 1Q 2026 guidance as at 4Q25 results publication on 10 February 2026.

• Looking ahead, bp expects first quarter 2026 reported upstream production to be broadly flat compared with the fourth quarter 2025.• In its customers business, bp expects seasonally lower volumes compared to the fourth quarter.
• In products, bp expects, compared to the fourth quarter, lower industry refining margins, partly offset by a lower level of refinery turnaround activity. 
• bp expects capital expenditure to be broadly flat compared with the fourth quarter 2025

2026 guidance

Below is bp's 1Q 2026 guidance as at 4Q25 results publication on 10 February 2026.

• bp expects reported upstream production to be slightly lower and underlying upstream production to be broadly flat compared with 2025. Within this, bp expects underlying production from oil production & operations to be broadly flat and production from gas & low carbon energy to be lower.
• In its customers business, bp expects to make continued progress growing cash flows, supported by lower underlying operating expenditure driven by structural cost reductions. These benefits will be partly offset by the earnings impact of completed and announced divestments. Reported earnings will benefit from lower depreciation as a result of the assets held for sale accounting treatment of Castrol following the planned divestment. Fuel margins are expected to remain sensitive to movements in the cost of supply.
• In products, bp expects significantly lower level of turnaround activity.
• bp expects other businesses & corporate underlying annual charge to be around $1.0 billion for 2026. The charge may vary quarter to quarter.• bp expects the depreciation, depletion and amortization to be broadly flat compared with 2025.
• bp expects the underlying ETR for 2026 to be around 40% but it is sensitive to a range of factors, including the volatility of the price environment and its impact on the geographical mix of the group’s profits and losses.
• bp expects capital expenditure to be $13-13.5 billion, weighted to the first half.  
• bp expects divestment and other proceeds to be $9-10 billion in 2026, including approximately $6 billion from the announced Castrol transaction, all significantly weighted to the second half. 
• bp expects Gulf of America settlement payments for the year to be around $1.6 billion pre-tax including $0.4 billion pre-tax to be paid during the first quarter and $1.1 billion pre-tax to be paid during the second quarter

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Medium-term guidance as provided in our capital markets update 2025

 Full detail around our medium targets and guidance can be found in our capital markets update materials.    

Four primary medium-term targets that underpin value growth

Adjusted free cash flow* growth: >20% CAGR from 2024 – 2027

Structural cost reduction: $4 – 5bn by end 2027

Net debt: expected to be reduced to $14 – 18bn by end 2027

(Potential proceeds from any transactions related to Castrol strategic review and announcement to bring a strategic partner into LSbp will be allocated to reduce net debt)

Group ROACE: >16% in 2027

Supporting metrics

Upstream:

• Upstream production growth: 2.3 - 2.5mboed in 2030, with capacity to increase to 2035
• 10 new major projects to start by end 2027 and further 8 to 10 by end 2030: Major projects
• Upstream capex: ~$10.5bn p.a to 2027 (including biogas)
  • ~$10bn oil & gas only (70% oil / 30% gas) 
• Structural cost reductions: ~$1.5bn by end 2027
• Operating cash flow growth: $2bn 2024 to 2027 (including biogas)
• Plant reliability: ~96%
• Reserves replacement ratio: 100% by end 2027

Downstream:

• Customers & products capex: ~$3bn by 2027
• Structural cost reductions: ~$2bn by end 2027 
  • ~$1.5bn in customers
  • >$500m in refining
• Operating cash flow growth: $3.5 to 4bn by 2027 (50% customers, 50% products)
• Realised cash breakeven: ~$3/bbl lower
• Returns: >15% expected
• Refining availability: 96%

Low carbon energy (renewables, H2/CCS):

• Capex: <$800m p.a to 2027
• Structural cost reductions: ~$0.5bn by end 2027
• Returns: mid-teen expected

Transition: includes LCE + biogas, biofuels and EV charging

Note: biogas is reported in G&LCE from 1Q25, biofuels and EV charging will continue to be reported in our customers business  

• Capex: $1.5 to 2bn p.a. to 2027
• Expected returns: >15%    

Price assumptions 

The price assumptions applicable to bp's CMU Cash Flow and ROACE Targets* have been updated by replacing the RMM price assumption with a RIM price assumption. The updated price assumptions are: at $70/bbl Brent, $4/mmBtu Henry Hub and $10.3/bbl refining indicator margin, all 2024 real. There is no change to the CMU Cash flow and ROACE targets or to the prices used for impairment testing as a consequence of this update. Price assumptions are not intended to reflect management’s forecasts for future prices.

(1) Reference year 2024, assumes inflation ~2%